Criterion of Eliminating Single-Parameter Model Uncertainty with Principle of Assuredly Minimal Absolute Lacks and Arithmetic Mean


There is stated a problem of generation and removal of model uncertainty regarding a single parameter of the being investigated object, which is described with more than one mathematical model. Using the arithmetic mean in removing such single-parameter model uncertainty is compared to the principle of assuredly minimal absolute lacks on the base of the corresponding antagonistic game with symmetric matrix. It has been shown that for the second player optimal strategy, whose support contains equiprobable pure strategies of selecting minimal and maximal values of the being investigated parameter, the corresponding evaluation of the model is not worse than the same evaluation as the arithmetic mean over fixed model values. It is pointed that the nonstrict problem of single-parameter model uncertainty elimination may be solved with the arithmetic mean or principle of assuredly minimal absolute lacks, depending on where minimum of deviate of the being investigated parameter value estimation from its real value is going to be reached. For the strict problem of single-parameter model uncertainty elimination there is suggested to apply all the fixed model values with a probabilistic distribution, being the nearest to the equiprobable distribution within the set of the second player optimal strategies.

Publication year: 
С. 75—80. Бібліогр.: 13 назв.

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